This morning we learned how the first quarter of the year went for three big consumer-focused brands: PepsiCo, Procter and Gamble, and American Airlines.

All three companies cut their forecasts for the year. All three say trade policy is creating uncertainty for them. It’s also creating uncertainty for their consumers when it comes to spending on flights, soda, and even staples like laundry detergent. 

John Leer, chief economist at Morning Consult, is taking these company earnings reports with a grain of salt. Because in the business world, it’s better to under promise and over perform.

“My sense is that companies are being sort of overly conservative right now, as opposed to setting up too lofty of expectations and then fail,” said Leer.

So then, why are companies on their earnings calls so worried about consumers being worried?

“Really what we’re talking about is how are their expectations of the future changing the way that they behave currently,” said Leer.

Expectations affect actions. And right now consumers are expecting prices to go up because of tariffs. Blake Droesch, a senior analyst at Emarketer, said that especially hits Pepsi, which makes sweet and savory treats.

“It really can only be a matter of having to raise prices by a little bit to get the consumer to start thinking about switching to another alternative,” said Droesch.

But what really concerns Droesch is that after years of consumers making discretionary downgrades — switching from nacho cheese Doritos to store-brand corn chips — people are now trying to cut costs on their favorite household staples. 

“Consumers are typically going to be more willing to, let’s say, cut back on buying their favorite name brand cookies than they are to switch from a toothpaste or deodorant brand that they’ve been using for years and they’re loyal to,” said Droesch.

Some consumers have even started rationing.

“Meaning not doing laundry as frequently, using less shampoo and soap,” said Droesch.

Erin Lash, who directs consumer equity research at Morningstar, said this kind of behavior doesn’t raise big red flags yet.

“It does take more than a quarter, maybe more than two quarters, before there is the expectation or the opinion that that change in behavior is likely to prove lasting,” said Lash.

And prove to be a real shift in how consumers and companies interact with the economy.